Influenza Pandemic Panic
Over April 2009 a new strain of Influenza A virus, H1N1, also known as Swine Flu, has emerged in Mexico. The worldwide spread of this illness has been and remains subject to much news coverage (and scare-mongering).
Why is this important?
H1N1 influenza A virus has not been seen recently. This means that we (human beings) do not have immunity to this virus. As a result, this virus has the potential to cause a global epidemic (pandemic). By definition this implies at least 40% of people world-wide may be infected.
It is not yet clear whether this will happen but there are now reports of cases of person-person transmission in the UK. The initial cases reported were only seen in those who had travelled to Mexico; it appears that some of these people have passed the virus on.
How dangerous is this?
It is not clear how dangerous this virus will be as we do not yet know what percentage of infected people are at risk of dying nor how likely it is to become an illness with sustained person to person transmission.
In previous Influenza Pandemics there has been huge variability of impact. The worst pandemic ever seen was the 1918-1920 Spanish flu pandemic, which accounted for up to 40 million deaths world-wide. Although this was believed to be a strain of influenza H1N1, general health and nutrition in much of the Western world was poorer than it is now and antibiotics had not yet been discovered. Other recorded pandemics have been responsible for approximately 1 million deaths world-wide on each occasion (Russian Flu, 1889-90; Asian Flu, 1957-8; Hong Kong Flu, 1968-9)
What are the symptoms of Swine flu?
Like all influenza illnesses, the symptoms are:
- High temperature (over 38°C/100.4°F)
- Generalised aches and pains
- Sore throat
- Runny nose
- Dry cough
The main danger in any episode of influenza is from the risk of secondary infections such as pneumonia.
The following measures are suggested:
- Strict attention to hand sanitisation or hand washing is known to decrease the spread of most viruses by 50%
- Cover your mouth if you cough or sneeze, preferably with a tissue which can then be disposed of.
- If you feel like you have flu the most important thing you can do is stay at home and telephone for advice.
- Keeping a distance of 1 metre (3 feet) from other people will slow the transmission of this virus.
- Use of face masks only if you are nursing a relative/friend with ‘flu or if you are coughing. Be aware face masks are not effective after they have been worn for 20 minutes.
Is there a vaccination?
There is not yet a vaccination for H1N1 although work has begun to produce one. The decision as to whether there will be a vaccination made available rests with the World Health Organisation, as manufacture of a new vaccine would suspend manufacture of the usual seasonal influenza vaccine. This decision will be taken if the global situation worsens. It will take at least 4-6 months from this decision for supplies to be available for general use.
The following websites may be useful: